The BBC [Political News]

Assad's fall 'a matter of time'


Bashar al-Assad

The former head of the UN observer mission in Syria says it is "only a matter of time" until President Bashar al-Assad's government falls.

But Norwegian Maj Gen Robert Mood, who left Syria last week, said Mr Assad's fall would not necessarily mean an end to the 16-month-old conflict.

Syrian forces renewed their assault on the northern city of Aleppo, Syria's most populous city, on Friday.

The US state department says it fears a massacre by Syrian government forces.

The pro-government al-Watan newspaper warned that the "mother of all battles" was about to start.

'Reports of atrocities'

"In my opinion it is only a matter of time before a regime that is using such heavy military power and disproportional violence against the civilian population is going to fall," Maj Gen Mood told the Reuters news agency.

Separately, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay appealed to both sides to spare civilians, citing concerns of "the likelihood of an imminent major confrontation".

Ms Pillay said she had received "as yet unconfirmed reports of atrocities, including extra-judicial killings and shooting of civilians by snipers" in Damascus.

Saying she had also received more reports of opposition fighters torturing or executing prisoners, Ms Pillay stated her belief that "crimes against humanity and war crimes have been, and continue to be, committed in Syria".

UK Foreign Secretary William Hague said the people of Aleppo were threatened with a potential massacre.

"This utterly unacceptable escalation of the conflict could lead to a devastating loss of civilian life and a humanitarian disaster," he said.

He urged all permanent members of the UN Security Council - including Russia and China, who have vetoed three resolutions - to condemn the actions.

The BBC's Wyre Davies, on the Syria-Turkey border, says conditions in Aleppo are reported to be dire.

Thousands of government troops have been drafted in from other areas and are encircling the city, he says.

'Hopeless situation'

An activist based in Fardos in the city told the BBC at least 15 people had died on Friday morning during the military's bombardment of a building.

"We have medical supplies but no doctors or equipment to treat the injured. The situation feels hopeless," said the activist, identified only as Ramy.

"The people of Aleppo are not coping with this crisis. They are dying. It is a massacre. People can leave their homes and move around the city but who would really want to take the risk of being shot or bombed?"

He insisted that activists would continue to resist the government forces.

"Activists are prepared to engage in a guerrilla war, from street to street if necessary," he said.

The BBC has been unable to independently verify Ramy's comments.

The Red Crescent has suspended some of its operations in Aleppo because of the heavy fighting.

Rebels have been stockpiling ammunition and medical supplies in preparation for the expected assault.

Syrian troops fired from helicopter gunships on south-western neighbourhoods on Friday morning, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights told the AFP news agency.

A convoy of tanks from Idlib province, near the border with Turkey, arrived in Aleppo overnight and was attacked by rebels, the Observatory said.

Residents flee

The US State Department said the deployment of tanks, helicopter gunships and fixed-winged aircraft around Aleppo suggested an attack was imminent.

But the US would not intervene, said spokeswoman Victoria Nuland, except by continuing to channel non-lethal assistance (such as communications equipment and medical supplies) to the rebels.

A Syrian MP from Aleppo has fled to Turkey, Turkey's state-run Anatolia news agency says.

Ikhlas Badawi, a mother of six, said she was defecting in protest at the "violence against the people".

Meanwhile, another defector, Gen Manaf Tlas, has put himself forward as a possible figure to unite the fractious opposition.

In an interview with a Saudi newspaper, Asharq al-Awsat, he said: "I am discussing with... people outside Syria to reach a consensus with those inside."

However, some in the opposition regard Gen Tlas - who fled earlier this month - as a compromised figure too close to the government of President Assad.

For its part, Turkey has said it will not tolerate the creation of a Kurdish-run region in northern Syria.

This follows reports that Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq had formed an alliance with a Kurdish party across the border in Syria.

Turkey would strike against "terrorists" in northern Syria, warned Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in the same way it has attacked bases in northern Iraq used by militants linked to the Kurdistan People's Party (PKK).

Turkey is concerned that the creation of a Kurdish authority in the north of Syria could provide a sanctuary to Kurdish rebels fighting for self-rule in Turkey's southeast.

News stroy taken from BBC Website

Egypt's president discusses Gaza blockade with Hamas PM


Mr Haniya's visit to Cairo was the second by a senior Hamas official since Mr Mursi's took office

Egypt's President Mohammed Mursi has held talks with the head of the Hamas-led government in Gaza, Ismail Haniya.

They discussed "solutions" relating to the blockade on the coastal territory and "alleviating the suffering" of its residents, Egyptian officials said.

Mr Mursi's predecessor, Hosni Mubarak, complied with Israel's request to impose restrictions on Gaza after Hamas ousted the rival Fatah faction in 2007.

Hamas leaders hope Mr Mursi, who is a fellow Islamist, will end the blockade.

The Palestinian group was originally founded in the 1980s as an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, to which Egypt's president belongs.
Fuel supply boost

However, there was no immediate sign that Egypt was ready to open up the border with Gaza following Mr Haniya's meeting with Mr Mursi at the presidential palace in Cairo on Thursday.

A Palestinian official told the Reuters news agency that the head of Egyptian intelligence, Murad Muwafi, had promised measures to increase the flow of fuel supplied by Qatar to Gaza via Egypt, to ease the electricity shortages the territory has experienced since 2007.

The fuel goes from Egypt into Israel, from where it passes through a crossing into Gaza in accordance with existing arrangements. Earlier this year, Hamas had requested that fuel tankers crossed directly from Egypt.

Before Thursday's talks, Egypt also reportedly eased visa requirements for Palestinians under the age of 40 seeking to cross from Gaza.

Mr Haniya's visit to Cairo was the second by a senior Hamas official since Mr Mursi took office at the end of June.

Last week, Mr Mursi held talks with Hamas's political leader, Khaled Meshaal, and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, who heads Fatah.

He told them that he would not favour either of the factions while Egypt sought to help them implement a reconciliation deal that should have seen the creation of a new transitional unity government.

In May, Mr Abbas was heavily criticised by Hamas when he appointed a new government in the West Bank headed by Salam Fayyad. Mr Abbas said he had not given up on reconciliation but could not "wait forever".

Story taken from BBC Website

US Official Arrested in Rangoon


The US Embassy in Rangoon

Washington DC, United States White House officials have today confirmed that a State Department "Fixer" operating out of the recently established US Embassy in Rangoon, Myanmar has been detained by local authorities on charges related to sexual abuse of a minor.

Burmese officials confirmed that they had detained a US citizen in the early hours of the morning during raids on several hotels in efforts to disrupt "organized prostitution". Officials in both countries have declined to comment on the record on issue further, but unofficially it has been confirmed that the detained "fixer" had been sent to Myanmar with the aim of facilitating an official visit to the country from US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton.

The trip was planned as part of the US's efforts to further encourage the development Myanmar's Fledgling democracy, the development of which was brought to international attention this year with the release of long-time prisoner of conscience Aung San Suu Kyi, abnd her subsequent election to the Burmese Parliament.

The trip, is now unlikely to take place, and the sex scandal will undoubtedly be embarrassing for the US government, especially following similar accusations of US officials soliciting prostitutes in the build up to an official visit to Colombia earlier this year.

Some commentators have already seized on this issue within the US, questioning why Hilary Clinton was planning to visit a state that still holds a questionable record on Human Rights and Democracy. Several senior Republican's have also raised concerns over the Obama Administration's "cozying up" to the Burmese government, whom they accuse of being "proxies" of the Peoples Republic of China, when the President should be taking a firmer stance to challenge the PRC and its allies.

[EFFECTS]

USA
-0.5 International Popularity ("Well that's embarrassing")
-0.5 Domestic Popularity ("Well that's embarrassing")
-0.5 Domestic Popularity ("Cozying up to the friends of the PRC are we?")

Violent Protests Rock Greece


Protests rock the Greek Capital, with effigies of Merkel being burnt

Athens, Greece, Over one-hundred thousand strong and angry at that, protestors have clogged the streets of Athens burning German flags and chanting "Merkel is the New Nazi" in an ugly turn of anti-German sentiments with some Greeks calling for the German Ambassador to be recalled and far right wing elements of Greek society beginning to surge in popularity. The far rightist party Golden Dawn has grown in popularity and has been generally felt to be behind the large anti-german sentiment which pollsters believe now encapsulates over 85% of the country a large majority. The protests have erupted in response to leaked statements that the Germans were putting new pressure on Greece to stay within the targets for austerity announced and that if Greece were to waver at all Germany would push for Greece to be excluded from the Eurozone.

Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras angrily spoke out against German Chancellor Angela Merkel stating "This is a violation of trust, Germany does not trust us to meet our deadlines nor do they demonstrate any good faith instead Germany is acting like an oppressor a role that they know well given their checkered past since 1938." These harsh words have stirred the masses and it is believed that Greece could potentially withdraw from the Eurozone on their own out of protest and in full face of referendums held to hold Greece within the Eurozone. It would appear that Germany has created a panic within the European Union many European leaders are questioning Germany's decision to put more pressure on Greece, a nation already under strain with strict austerity pledges to fulfill. One thing is certain Germany's relations with Greece have taken a serious dent with many Greek politicians echoing the rhetoric of those protesting calling the Germans "fascist oppressors" and only out to "serve Germanic interests rather than European interests". The criticism is harsh and has seen Merkel's face printed in leading newspapers with a superimposed swastika over it implying that Merkel is merely continuing the oppressive policies of the German era of the 1940s.

The anti-German rhetoric has been building since the collapse of the Greek economy and the protests earlier but never has it quite reached this point. Greeks over 1 million in strength have clogged the streets for two days straight now with the protestors calling for the German Ambassador to be recalled and some calling for the German embassy to be closed in Greece. The Greek Government is believed to be in emergency talks about potentially pulling out of the European Union altogether and working to salvage the Greek economy with other partners in the region. The German government must find a way to restore relations if that is a priority and work to reassure the Greek people who are already skeptical of German intentions that Germany does not desire to oppress but rather work to salvage the fragile European Union economies and work for a new method forwards.

[EFFECTS]

Germany:

-1.00% Domestic Popularity ("We are making things worse by pressuring Greece")
+0.50% Domestic Popularity ("This is both wise and reasonable")
-2.00% International Popularity ("Stupid Germany! You are singlehandedly destroying the European Union")
Markets Shaken and Sharp Losses recorded

FSA Seizes Aleppo


FSA Fighters guard a checkpoint in Aleppo

Aleppo, Syria The Free Syrian Army has made significant gains in Aleppo. Government forces have been driven from the city, with isolated resistance occurring in the old town and around the citadel.

In the surrounding countryside the Free Syrian army appears to be making gains. Reporters on the ground are stating that the FSA has secured a supply corridor between Aleppo and the Turkish border, through which they are planning to re-enforce their gains.

FSA commanders are highly optimistic, already calling this the beginning of the end for Assad. Though the Syrian army is yet to respond with any real zeal to FSA Operations.

Meanwhile unofficial sources have confirmed that the Government has deployed increased forces to the Northern Syrian border.

So far Western governments have yet to react to the gains made by the FSA, though it is expected that they will express cautious optimism.

The UN has remained remarkably quiet on the Issue, with the permanent members seeming to avoid confrontation with Russia and China in the Security Council, confusing many commentators in to thinking that Western Powers either have chosen to ignore the issue, or that they may be considering side-lining the UN altogether.

The UK has called for a the General Assembly to debate the issue of human rights abuses, but this proposal has yet to receive comment by another government. And further aspects of the conflict have yet to receive mention

High level meetings at NATO headquarters are on-going, with reports from several sources that these are increasingly concerning the developing situation in Syria.


[EFFECTS]
No effects yet! Players should pay heed to clues given in this article as to the desired activity.

Iran Steps up Security for Summit

Qom, Iran The Iranian Government has deployed a significant security presence to the city of Qom in order to ensure the smooth running of the Bilateral Anglo-Iranian summit.

The security efforts have seen significant re-enforcement of local police forces by the Basij Militia and elements of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps. With stepped up efforts to protect the Qom International Hotel, the location of the summit and the accommodation of the British delegation for the duration of the conference.

The Iranian government has stepped up security in an effort to avoid the repeat of events of late 2011, which saw protesters, believed by some to have been encouraged by elements of the Iranian Government, storm the British Embassy in Tehran.

Whilst the diplomatic initiative has received support around the world for seeming to break the recent downward trend in relations between the two states, the summit has been met with mixed reactions and confusion by domestic and international audiences.

In the United Kingdom domestic reaction has seen the right wing press accuse the Conservative Government of Chamberlain-esque policy of appeasement. Internationally too the UK has been accused of breaking ranks with other Western Powers.

For Iran, domestic audiences have certainly had mixed reactions. Whilst many see the UK’s attendance of the summit as a positive step in the recognition of Iran as a regional power, significant elements have maintained a strongly anti-UK stance. Many are accusing the government of bowing to Western Imperialism. In a thinly veiled public metaphor, off-duty members of the Revolutionary Guards burnt effigies of Iran’s former Shah.

There are also emerging reports that some local commanders of the Revolutionary Guards may be using the increased security measures to further crack-down on democracy campaigners, capitalising on the enhanced security presence in Qom.

[EFFECTS]

Iran

+1.5 Domestic Popularity ("Engaging with the International Community, Demonstrating we are an Important World Power")
-2.5 Domestic Popularity ("You would invite those Imperialist dogs here!")
+3 International Popularity (Engaging with the International Community)
+1 International Popularity ("Investing in such security demonstrates the importance you place on peace")
-2 International Popularity ("Erm, We hope you aren't using this as an excuse to crack down on dissident voices?")
+0.5 Stability (Increased security restricts the activities of dissident groups)

UK
+ 2 Domestic Popularity ("Engaging with Iran Diplomatically, Maybe war really can be avoided")
-1 Domestic Popularity ("Right Wing Press plays this as appeasement")
-2 International Popularity ("Breaking ranks on dealings with Iran")
+2 International Popularity ("Not afraid to explore peaceful options")

NEWS IN BRIEF

Saudi Arabia steps up aid for FSA

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia The Saudi Government has stepped up efforts to support the Free Syrian Army, reportedly establishing a fund of 100 Million USD to supply the people of Syria with “food, medical equipment, clothes, tents and blankets.”

More significantly the Saudi Government has assigned a fund of more than 400 Million USD to pay the wages of FSA soldiers. The move has already boosted morale in the FSA and encouraged further desertions from the Syrian Armed Forces.

Anders Fogh Rasmussen Narrowly Avoids Assassination

Brussels, BelgiumNATO Secretary General is reported to be in a critical condition after the detonation of an apparent suicide bomb in Brussels. The NATO Secretary General was travelling to chair a working group on NATO responses to the on-going Syrian crisis when his motorcade was struck by a suicide bomber traveling by motorcycle. No-one has yet claimed responsibility for the attack.

[EFFECTS]

Saudi Arabia
-$500 million (single payment)
+1 Domestic Popularity (“We like aid!”)
+1 International Popularity (“We like aid!”)

Syria
Increasing desertions to the FSA

”Cameron faces Heavy Criticism over handling of Afghan Withdrawal”

London, United Kingdom David Cameron has today faced significant criticism in the House of Commons over his handling of the UK’s withdrawal from Afghanistan. Leader of the opposition, Ed Miliband, has relentlessly grilled the Prime Minister throughout recent sessions of Prime Ministers Questions, and the beleaguered Prime Minister has been unable to call on support from many of his backbenchers.

Public opinion too has also swung against the Prime Minister. In a recent poll conducted by the BBC’s Newsnight programme in conjunction with the Guardian newspaper 43% of the public maintained that the immediate withdrawal of UK forces from Afghanistan was a positive step, a huge 73% agreed that the UK Governments handling of the affair was poor. 57% believe that the UK’s standing in international affairs has suffered as a result.

Particular anger has been sparked by the “triumphalist attitude” of the government with regards to the withdrawal. As part of its “celebrations” of withdrawal the UK government closed schools for one day and decorated London with “Patriotic Bunting”, a move which was poorly received by the public and several national papers. Leaks concerning December plans for military parades and public holidays to celebrate the withdrawal of the final 500 men have also met with severe criticism and accusations of an out of touch government.


[EFFECTS]

UK
+3% Domestic Popularity (“We are finally free of Afghanistan”)
-5% Domestic Popularity (“Poor handling of withdrawal has hurt our reputation”)
-5% Domestic Popularity (“What the hell are these triumphalist celebrations”)

Israel Reforms Conscription

Jerusalem Israel's Knesset passed a critical reform to the nation's unequal conscription structures, in resolution of the nation's most discussed contemporary social issue.

Earlier this year, Israel's controversial 'Tal Law', granting ultra-Orthodox Jews an exemption from the nation's otherwise universal military and civil service draft, was deemed unconstitutional by the nation's Supreme Court. Its impacts officially expired on August 1.

In Israel, the majority of citizens, upon turning 18, are compelled by law to serve at least two years in either the military or civil service. Until August this month, one community, the highly religious ultra-Orthodox Jewish community, occupying 13% of Israel's population, had enjoyed an exemption ever since the founding of the Jewish state.

Originally granted for the re-construction of Jewish culture and learning following the holocaust, Israel's exemption for its ultra-Orthodox citizenry has become gradually less practical following a series of exponential increases in the community's numbers. Throughout the 1950s, the number of ultra-Orthodox exemptions to Israel's military and civil service draft was less than one thousand per year. Before the expiration of the Tal Law, the figures swelled to 62,000 annual exemptions.

Since the Tal Law's controversial instatement in 2002, and its even more controversial renewal in 2007, the issue of equality in terms of civil service and economic burdens has been Israel's premier social issue. As Nehemia Shtrasler of Jerusalem Post pointed out several months ago, the issue of civil service burdens for ultra-Orthodox Jews was merely an extension of the long-existent dispute over the community's drain on Israel's economy. Ultra-Orthodox Jews, in unbroken devotion to the examination of Judaism's holy texts, infrequently pursue jobs and cost the state billions of dollars a year on subsidies and welfare programs.

Ultra-Orthodox leaders have argued their prayers are beneficial for the Jewish character of Israel as ingrained in the constitution. While a valid claim, secular parties in Knesset have long stressed their way of life is not practical in the long-term given their share of the population and high fertility rates.

The dispute over ultra-Orthodox civil service burdens has inevitably spilled over into disputes about ethnic legal and practical disparity as a whole. Arab Israelis, comprising 20% of the nation's citizenry, have long enjoyed an unspoken exemption from Israel's draft. Several months ago, Avigdor Liberman's nationalist Yisrael Beiteinu party had championed demands to include them in both military and civil service drafts, to which Arab leaders mustered strong verbal resistance.

Adding to the depth and complexity of Israel's draft problem is the correlation between military and civil service drafts and future individual and community welfare. Compulsory military and civil service programs compile individuals from all classes and leagues of society to perform the same basic duties, building connections and, in conjunction with the programs' official benefits, granting individuals more metaphorical doors to success upon discharge. Empirically, these trends have been shown to create significant economic impacts on communities; exemption from conscription can almost always be viewed as a qualifier for the degree of poverty of a community as a whole.

The correlation between conscription and success in Israeli society has greatly complicated the politics of the issue, with some Arab leaders calling for increased participation in civil service programs. For years, a volunteer civil service program has been open to Arab youths. Since 2004, its membership has grown tenfold, and veterans following discharge almost universally report good treatment, the perception of both individual and community benefit, and show greater levels of patriotism to the Israeli government and recognition of Israel's right to exist as a Jewish state than the average Arab Israeli youth. Following earlier communication with Prime Minister Netanyahu, Arab leaders have agreed to a non-universal draft of the Arab population.

Societal benefits, in particular, economic benefits, have been a primary contributing factor in the direction of Knesset debates surrounding the issue. Civil service programs in Israel and other developed states have the potential to produce immense economic and social benefit for the nation, and research shows that civil service programs could constitute a permanent solution to the perceived economic burden of the ultra-Orthodox population, as 85% of ultra-Orthodox Jews discharged from volunteer service programs proceed to find employment in the private sector, in contrast to their average 40% employment rate.

The politics of any prospective resolution to the variety of issues in the former status quo had been complicated. Kadima, the largest party in the Knesset with 28 seats, departed from Netanyahu's 94-seat ruling coalition over his desires to agree to grant a limited amount of ultra-Orthodox exemptions, leaving Netanyahu in firm control of a 66-seat majority. While ultra-Orthodox and Arab leaders have recognized the necessity of a partial draft, they have vehemently opposed the notion of a universal draft with no exemptions. Netanyahu's Likud party, in their universal declaration of a position, supported drafting all ethnic groups into the civil service, but stressed the logistical difficulties of including ultra-Orthodox and Arab citizens in the military.

Netanyahu's compromise proposal, first roughly fleshed out last month, details the conscription of 60,500 of the 62,000 ultra-Orthodox youth turning 18 this year, and 28,000 Arab youth into an expanded version of the existing Arab volunteer civil service program. Recent debates in Knesset have concluded at agreements which have clarified the mechanics of the draft and exemptions, where a simple decision calculus will be employed in decisions for exemptions taking into account a variety of factors, including willingness, technical skills and related demanded skills, and the sentiments of community leaders towards an individual's abilities. As an expansion of the existing civil service program, the new plan will allow for a variety of critical public services and departments to enlist the assistance of the new personnel.

Inclusive of straightforward benefits to service quality, healthcare, education, and development, and ulterior benefits, calculations regarding the economic value of civil service in terms of GDP per hour, multiplied by the number of required service hours, added to the stimulus value of the costs of the plan, have concluded that the total economic benefits produced directly and immediately from the plan will amount to an additional 1.15% to the nation's GDP growth. Given the pay structure of the civil service program, the costs of the program will amount to more than 150 million dollars annually, but government officials have stressed that the reform's economic value outweighs its cost.

In the long term, analysts predict future economic gains. Employment rates among ultra-Orthodox Jews discharged from service are higher than those who have not served; when the first discharge of the first group of civil service draftees occurs in two years, an additional quantity of economic value amounting to 0.8% of GDP will be created annually, and the government's revenues are to increase by over 500 million dollars due to taxable incomes. Calculations conclude that the government will save a larger sum, amounting to more than 5 billion dollars, on subsidy and welfare benefits. Officials expect unemployment figures to decline by 0.67% as a result of the increase in ultra-Orthodox employment.

Netanyahu praised the plan following the passing of it and its related legislature, inclusive of more severe benefits on draft dodging in pre-emption of civil disobedience, claiming that Israel had "worked together" to produce a plan satisfactory to all parties, and "distribute the burden of citizenship equally", all while "aiming to create a permanent solution to this issue". It is clear, however, that, despite the ultra-Orthodox and Arab consent to the compromise proposal in the latter's recognition of the inevitability and the former's desires to remain in the ruling coalition for the voicing of their interests, the most satisfied parties with the settlement will be Israel's secular Jewish majority, which is expected by analysts to flock to Likud, away from Likud's rival secular parties, in the next elections.

[EFFECTS]

Israel

+5.00% Government Popularity (This seems like a fair and sensible way forwards, with tangible benefits for Israel.)
-1.00% Government Popularity (You cannot please all of the people all of the time etc.)
+3.00% Stability
+1.15% Real GDP Growth Rate
+$156,900,000 Total Expenditure
Further effects Q1 2015.

Mikheil Saakashvili Calls for Russian Troops to Leave Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Travels to Brussels to meet with NATO Leaders



Brussels, Belgium: Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili landed in Brussels today and went straight to NATO headquarters where insiders believe the leader is working to achieve membership accession into the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, but back up 48 hours ago and you get to the meat and bones of the story. President Saakashvili spoke to his people in Tbilsi as a large massive crowd gathered to commemorate sacrifices made by the Armed Forces of Georgia in the ISAF in which Georgia deployed 1,000 troops in support of the ISAF NATO dominant mission. Mikheil Saakashvili spoke very clearly "It is time for Russia to leave Georgia and to allow us to heal the wounds that have been inflicted upon us by Russian aggression. It is time for us to be ready to seize the moment.

The minute that announcement was made speculation took over social networking sites in Georgia with many people jubilant wondering if now Saakashvili had some kind of deal in the works. In 2008 then British Prime Minister Gordon Brown spoke plainly ""My message to Russia is simple: if you want to be welcome at the top table of organisations such as the G8, OECD and WTO, you must accept that with rights and responsibilities". Brown said that Russia "cannot pick and choose which rules to adhere to." Many western nations and many nations in NATO do not recognize the Russian claim of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as being legitimate and many within the United Kingdom believe these two territories to be only propped up by the Russian Federation.

One analyst, Luke Coffey who serves as a foreign affairs adviser for the US Conservative thinktank "Heritage Foundation" put it this way: "South Ossetia has essentially become one large Russian military base. Beyond the reach and sight of the European Union Monitoring Mission (the Russians do not allow international monitors to enter the occupied territories - another violation of the Six Point Ceasefire Agreement), the Russians have deployed advanced anti-aircraft systems, rocket launchers, and tactical ballistic missiles. Since Georgia’s capital is only 30 miles away, all of this is within striking distance of Tbilisi. Unfortunately, none of this looks temporary and the Russians appear to be there to stay. Soon after the war in 2008 Russia unilaterally recognised the sovereign independence of the two occupied provinces. Since then an international drive led by Russia for recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia has been a dismal failure. So far, in addition to Russia, only Nicaragua, Venezuela, and three tiny Pacific Island countries of Vanuatu, Tuvalu, and Nauru recognize the sovereignty of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Nauru formally recognised the breakaway provinces only after Russia provided it with $50 million in international aid. "

The stakes are raised primarily because Georgia has yet to attain NATO membership and many within Russia believe that Georgia has once again stepped over the line and is now posturing in a hostile manner towards the Russian Federation something that Georgian officials are extremely quick to deny. Georgian officials believe that the time has come for Russia to give its hold over Georgian territories up. Sources close to the Russian military brush off Georgian claims as "blatant anti-Russian propoganda designed to prop up the Georgian government in a time in which the economy is making the government unpopular". Russian sources have a point, ever since the economy in Georgia has taken a slight downturn there has been speculation that Mikheil Saakashvili could be on the way out. But these latest words have caused Saakashvili to skyrocket with his name trending on social media sites like Twitter and entire Reddit threads being created to discuss the latest remarks from the Georgian leader.

The comments by Saakashvili has intensified a new row between Alexander Lukashenko the President of Belarus and the Georgian leader with Lukashenko describing the Georgian leader as a "fearmonger of the worst order who blackens the Russian government for his own gain." Lukashenko is known for his outrageous statements particularly in 1995 when he made statements about Germany ""The history of Germany is a copy of the history of Belarus. Germany was raised from ruins thanks to firm authority and not everything connected with that well-known figure Hitler was bad. German order evolved over the centuries and attained its peak under Hitler." and in 2007 when speaking about the city of Babruysk he went into anti-semetic terms " "This is a Jewish city,[99] and the Jews are not concerned for the place they live in. They have turned Babruysk into a pigsty. Look at Israel—I was there and saw it myself ... I call on Jews who have money to come back to Babruysk." These comments were played on Georgian state television and radio shortly after it was reported that the Belarus leader had criticized Saakashviilli for his remarks towards Russia and many within Georgia have criticized Lukashenko as the Eastern European Berlesconi a snide reference to the buffoonish former Italian leader who while brilliant was often the target of humour often misunderstood. The relationship took a further turn for the worse this afternoon as the Georgian Ambassador refused a phone call and then a face to face meeting with Belarus diplomats which sources behind the scenes say was intentional and reflect the level of anger the two sides have for each other.

Belarus has already pledged its support for the Russian Federation by holding state sponsored rallies in which the streets of Minsk were packed full of people who chanted anti-Georgian slogans with many burning the Georgian flag and burning effigies of Saakashvili while the government of Belarus was quick to deny that they sanctioned any sort of behavior singling out or targeting the Georgian government. Representatives of Belarus are reportedly eager to hear from Russia if some sort of peacekeeping force could potentially be authorized for South Ossetia or if Belarus could have a higher role in this matter. Many in Belarus feel as if this is a sign of bad blood boiling to the surface as tensions are beginning to stir between Georgia and Belarus to the extent that many analysts are calling it potentially alarming in the future.

Belarus

+3.00 Domestic Popularity (Standing up for Russia. People are happy to see such dedicated leadership in Belarus standing up for Putin and Russians)
-1.50 International Popularity (People are nervous about this and see this as Russia perhaps pulling the strings a bit too much behind the scenes)

Russian Federation

+3.00 Domestic Popularity (Mixed bag, a lot of people feel like Russia should stand up strong against Georgia and put them in their place.
- 1.00 Domestic Popularity (Some Russians who are anti-Putin want to see Russia pull back but this is an extremely limited sentiment.
-4.00 International Popularity (Many nations do not recognize Ossetia and Abkhazia as soveriegn nations. Many see Russia as propping them up in a bizarre kabuki theater.)
Russians are angry with Georgia, many of them are on the verge of outright hating Georgia if they don't already. They see Georgia as a thorn in the side of Russia that needs to be removed quickly

NATO Nations

Many are concerned with these developments
-3.00 Domestic Popularity (People see this as being a powder keg ready to explode and while people don't want to support a nation that seems intent on provoking Russia they worry about the implications this might have.

Georgia

+4.00 Domestic Popularity (Our glorious leader is standing by our strongest ally, we like this!)
-5.50 International Popularity: (NATO has grown tired in the past of Georgia wanting to join NATO, some see this as repetitive while others see this as potential instability for other NATO member states which could cause serious problems.)
Anti-Belarus sentiment at an all time high, people are extremely upset with the way Belarus is reacting and they are demanding Russia's immediate withdrawal from the region

Poland, Latvia & EstoniaCome Together, Express Solidarity with Georgia: Poland, Latvia & Ukraine Closes Belarus Border




Bronisław Komorowski & Andris Bērziņš and Toomas Hendrik Ilves, the respective leaders of Poland and Latvia & Estonia, have come together in a joint condemnation of a recent Russian Federation statement against fellow country Ukraine and Romania in which Russia threatens to treat Ukrainian & Romanian citizens caught in any conflict with Georgia as "mercenaries". The statement made by Russian Lieutenant General Alexander Galkin Commander of the Southern Military District read in part:

Quote :

"Members of the press, I have made the decision to make this statement and to answer questions in regards to a recent decision made by the Ministry of Defense that effects the status of foreign "volunteers" operating with the Georgian Armed Forces. Our intelligence sources have received information that more than 2,000 Ukrainians as well as Romanians have entered Georgia with the express purpose of fighting with the Georgian Armed Forces should Georgia once again use its forces to attempt to take South Ossetia and Abkhazia. My government has been in contact with Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych. Through that discussion we know that his government is concerned about the influx of Ukrainian nationals into Georgia but has not yet taken any measures to stop this.

Because these nationals are not members of the Georgian Armed Forces and are not being confirmed by Romania or Ukraine as being members of their Armed Forces, in accordance with current international laws and regulations I have received orders that explain the handling of these personnel should they be captured. These orders state that my soldiers are to treat Ukrainian and Romanian nationals in any conflict as Mercenaries, and all laws under that classification will be followed. According to international law "Mercenaries are ineligible for Prisoner of War status under the Third Geneva Convention as well as the Additional Protocol I; if captured, they would be classified as unlawful or unprivileged combatants, and “may be prosecuted under the domestic law of the detaining state for such action” and “may be interned for as long as they pose a serious security threat.”

As a result any Ukrainian or Romanian national that chooses to fight in any conflict in regards to South Ossetia or Abkhazia and is captured will be charged under the domestic laws of the Russian Federation and will be imprisoned in the Russian Federation until such a time that we deem them no longer a threat to the National Security of the Russian Federation, South Ossetia, or Abkhazia.

I will now answer questions from the press in regards to this new status that my government has given to foreign nationals in Georgia who may fight alongside Georgian Armed Forces personnel should Georgia conduct aggressive actions."

The Polish government has condemned this move alongside the governments of Latvia and Estonia with sources saying that other European nations could be joining them soon if this escalates. Poland announced that because Belarus has remained a vocal opponent of Georgia and becaues Belarus is supporting an aggressive Russian policy against Georgia that the border with Belarus is closing effective immediately. The government of Latvia has announced that in response to what they are deeming "unacceptable Russian aggression" they are increasing the number of border patrol individuals on the border and stationing 1,000 soldiers on the board as a precaution and has summoned the Russian ambassador to Riga for diplomatic questioning. Further the government of Estonia has joined in a rare move criticizing the Russian moves as a "serious and critical misstep in the region" and as a result Estonia has filed an official diplomatic protest with the Russian Government and sources close to both Latvia and Estonia state that if things continue to accelerate that they may close their borders with Russia which would be a serious blow to relations with the Russian Federation.

The Polish Government has gone a step forward announcing it will be stationing 24 F-16 C/D aircraft at the request of the Georgian government in the city of Tbilisi for defensive purposes and that the Polish Government will be considering sending military land personnel on the ground if things intensify between Georgia and the Russian Federation. Sources close to the Polish government say that Polish President Bronisław Komorowski was contacted personally by Georgian leaders asking him to do something to help in the situation. But this has not been met without consequences of its own, Pro-Russian protestors rioted in Warsaw this evening with minor looting occuring and 2 people injured as these protestors were coralled and eventually arrested. Already Polish newspapers are accusing these protestors of being backed by Russia's United Russia party which is the current dominant ruling party in Moscow but sources close to the Russian government deny any involvement in the protests. The Polish Government is reportedly also preparing a statement before NATO asking for assistance for Georgia which in the past has been turned down due to internal strife within the Georgian state. NATO is reportedly discussing this matter earnestly and members are looking for an equitable resolution to the tensions with both sides deescalating as quickly as possible.

There is pressure on Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves to ease up on his anti-Russia rhetoric with some politicians muttering that the Estonian President is perhaps past his prime now but those closest to the Estonian leader state that Estonia is concerned over rumors that Russia is now taking a much harder stance against other nations in the region particularly Georgia which has put many within Estonia on edge despite the generally warm relationship between Estonia and Russia over the past which has frosted in 2010 and 2011 over diplomatic misunderstandings related to the Second World War. Ultimately the Russian Government must find a way to quiet these nations and reassure them over their concerns or at the very least find an effective approach as this matter begins to grow and grow looking by the day like a powder keg with a lit short fuse. The biggest news however is military news, Russia has heightened events by deploying 13,000 soldiers to the disputed regions and placed over 60,000 on alert in the military command closest to Georgia. Sources close to all sides say it was this development on top of the statement by Russia that fueled the anger and fueled the quick reactions in response to Russia's behavior which many Eastern European countries are growing nervous about. And it is wortth noting that as soon as it was confirmed the military deployment was made, Ukraine and Latvia closed their borders with Belarus in a sign of contempt and outrage towards what they are protesting is "Russian aggression". The borders are believed to be temporarily closed but no announcement has come yet as to when it is open and it is worth noting it is only the land border that has closed, not air traffic or any other transit form.

Russian Federation

+2.00 Domestic Popularity (People trust Putin but many are uneasy over these events and wonder what this holds in store for Russian security, the economy of Russia and transit to neighboring countries. By and large though people are not fazed too much)
-2.00 Domestic Popularity (People are worried what border closures, etc might do for transit and travel but more importantly the economy. With that said many are trustful of Putin and this is again a mixed bag.
Russians are growing somewhat nervous over these developments not sure what this means in the longterm


Georgia

+4.00 Domestic Popularity (We are energized, we are bold and we have the attention of the world)
-4.00 International Popularity (Georgia is being seen by many as a troublemaker. Citizens in France are growing tired of what they refer to as "The Big Distraction")


Belarus

-3.00 Domestic Popularity (People are wondering if perhaps Belarusian government has made a misstep and they are worried this could be very bad for Belarus in the long run)
-2.00 International Popularity (Nations are using Belarus, a smaller country as almost a pincushion for their frustrations with Russia. Its not fair, but there's not much Belarus can do about it at this point.)

Poland

+5.00 Domestic Popularity (Stand up for Georgia like we did in 2008, this is good. Very good)
-1.00 (Pro Russian activists trashed Warsaw and injured 2 before being arrested. Unrest is never good, they managed to scare people in Warsaw a lot.)
Anti-Russian sentiment is at an all time high in Poland, people are in open disgust towards the Putin government with offensive caricatures of Putin appearing in newspapers today


Latvia

+3.00 (This has stoked Anti-Russian sentiment like you wouldn't believe. Latvian President is surging in the polls)
-1.00 Domestic Popularity (Did we just tick off our neighbor?)

Estonia

Effects negiligible, people are divided about this. Most don't want to see relations with Russia take a big hit.

Yemen Steps Up Security Over Coup Fears


Above: Man believed to be responsible for Coup Fears

An official in the president’s office, speaking on condition of anonymity, has accused Colonel Ahmed Saleh of seeking to topple the incumbent head of state. The source added that the plot is being masterminded by Saleh’s son and a number of his allies who lost their posts in the military and the security forces. The coup plot took on added urgency on Monday, after Hadi issued a presidential decree limiting Ahmed Saleh's powers, the source said. However, Ahmed Saleh continues to command the elite Republican Guards and controls over 30 brigades. He responded to Hadi’s decree by ordering his forces to abandon military bases in the major governorates of Sana’a, Taizz, and Abyan in order to cause chaos across the country. On Friday, a number of Republican Guards demonstrated on the streets of the capital and fired into the air to protest against Hadi’s recent decision.

The Yemeni authorities have tightened security near the Defense Ministry building and the president’s residence to prevent an attack by defectors and forces loyal to Ahmed Saleh. Ali Abdullah Saleh formally stepped down and handed over power to then Vice President Abdrabuh Mansur Hadi in February 2012. The power transfer occurred under a Saudi-backed deal brokered by the (Persian) Gulf Cooperation Council in April 2011 and signed by Saleh in Riyadh on November 23, 2011. On February 21, 2012 Hadi won a single-candidate presidential election backed by the United States and Saudi Arabia. He was sworn in on February 27, 2012.

Saudi Arabia

-2 Domestic Popularity (This could affect the stability of the region)

Yemen

+5 Domestic Popularity (The people are glad to see the Yemeni government taking quick action.)
-2 Domestic Popularity (The military may be fragile, this could affect the region)

Islamic Republic of Iran

+3 Domestic Popularity (Many see this as something that might strengthen Iran's position in the region.)
-2 International Popularity (Some people speculate that the Iranian government could be a "force" behind motivating this to occur.)

News Story taken verbatim from: http://www.moqavemat.ir/?a=content.id&id=43189

Bahrain Passes New Human Rights Reform



Bahrain passed a new child protection law last week that includes 69 articles and required five years to formulate.

The law outlines protective measures for children and provides a blueprint regarding their healthcare, education and social needs.

Bahraini King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa approved the law on August 7th after it was submitted by the government and ratified by the Shura Council and the House of Representatives.

The law establishes a national committee for children responsible for proposing a national strategic plan for children while monitoring the problems and basic needs of children and providing appropriate solutions.

The Ministry of Social Development said in a statement that the law's eight chapters address multiple issues including nutrition, nursery care, and education and rehabilitation of children with special needs.

The law also introduces safeguards against child abuse, traffic hazard protocols, and penalties for violating any of the law's articles, the ministry said.

"We worked with our colleagues in parliament for a long time so that the law would be of maximum benefit to Bahraini children," said Dr. Nada Hafadh, a Shura Council member. The law focuses upon all aspects affecting the child from birth to breastfeeding, naming, religion, family care, upbringing, healthcare, education and all other societal rights, she said.

"The law is a new step forward to cement Bahrain's commitment to protecting the rights of its citizens regardless of age, gender or sect," Hafadh said, adding that "this child law is the fruit of intensified national efforts that were exerted to improve legislative and legal systems in the kingdom."

Hafadh said a child's interests should supersede all contentious issues, whether related to education, health or even the judiciary. "For example, if a child was suffering from a dangerous disease, and the child's parents or guardians refused to provide treatment for any reason, the statement referring to the child's best interest in the law obligates us to treat the child and provide the necessary health care," she said. She further said the new law should reduce the number of child abuse or neglect cases in the kingdom.

Dr. Sumaya al-Jawdar, member of the House of Representatives, said Bahraini children will receive complete care and full protection as part of the new legislation. She said the law demonstrates the kingdom's commitment to protecting "the young before the old". Al-Jawdar said the law will also become an inevitable deterrent for individuals found guilty of abusing Bahraini children physically, mentally or sexually, with the imposition of appropriate sanctions and penalties to reduce the instances of human rights abuse. The new law was passed at an appropriate time, al-Jawdar said, noting that officials approved it prior to a United Nations convention scheduled for March 2013 on international human rights.

Source: http://al-shorfa.com/en_GB/articles/meii/features/2012/08/13/feature-02

Bahrain

+3 Domestic Popularity (New reforms, new life in Bahrain)

North Korea Agrees to Repatriate Japanese Remains from WW2




TOKYO: The Japanese and North Korean Red Cross agreed on Friday they would work towards the repatriation of the remains of Japanese left behind after the occupation of the Korean peninsula, a report said.Officials from the two countries’ Red Cross organisations concluded a two-day meeting in Beijing, Jiji Press said, a rare opportunity for dialogue between two nations that have no diplomatic ties and frosty relations.The Japan Red Cross Society said the two sides agreed to proceed with the repatriation of the remains of Japanese who died in the north during and immediately after World War II, according to Jiji.

Ri Ho-Rim, secretary general of North Korea’s Red Cross Society, was also quoted by Jiji as telling reporters separately: “We agreed on some of the issues. We will continue to discuss other important issues.” The meeting will be scrutinised for any sign of North Korea’s diplomatic attitude under its new leader Kim Jong-Un, who is being watched by the outside world for his readiness to change the impoverished but nuclear-armed country.Japan occupied the Korean peninsula from 1910 until 1945 and about 34,600 Japanese died in what is now North Korea after Soviet troops entered, according to the Japanese welfare ministry. The remains of about 13,000 Japanese have been repatriated but around 21,000 others are believed to be buried in the North.The two-day meeting was the first contact between the two Red Cross societies since August 2002, according to the Japanese Red Cross Society.

At that time, the two sides discussed the fates of Japanese kidnap victims as well as home visits by Japanese who lived in the North after marrying North Koreans. In 2002 North Korea admitted to kidnapping Japanese in the 1970s and 1980s, but Tokyo maintains that Pyongyang did not tell the whole truth and has not owned up to all the abductions. Its perceived refusal to come clean on the issue has derailed efforts to normalise ties between the two countries. North Korea’s nuclear tests and a series of missile launches have also discouraged any rapprochement.

But moreover this signals a greater opporotunity by Kim Jong Un to increase and further relations with the west by repatriating remains as a sign of good faith. It is important to note that the Democratic People's Republic of Korea also known as North Korea has been in a technical state of war with its neighbor to the south for over 50 years since the end of the Korean War. And beyond that the DPRK has been subject to extensive United Nations sanctions due to its weapons and missile programs which have provoked international response with things reaching a boiling point with the sinking of a South Korean ship in 2011 by the North Korean government. The North Koreans are now under new leadership that of Kim Jong Un the direct descendant of patriarchal figure Kim Jong Il. The government in contrast of Kim Jong Un appears now to be much more willing to negotiate and deal directly with the international community but only time will tell particularly if things continue to increase and move forward in a gradual motion.

DPRK

Results in Private
+5 International Popularity (North Korea is making genuine efforts. We support this.)


Japan

+5 Domestic Popularity (We are getting our remains back)
+7 International Popularity (Japan has done something nobody else has been able to do in a long while, make successful diplomatic contact with North Korea)

News in Brief


Nursultan Nazarbayev Passes Away: Long-time Leader of Kazakhstan



The long time leader of Kazakhstan has passed away today of unknown causes, the government has ordered all of its embassies to be closed for a period of three weeks of mourning in honour of the accomplishments of Nursultan Nazarbayev who is lauded as one of the key figures in the history of the nation of Kazakhstan which has emerged from the ruins of a Soviet Satellite State to a vibrant community that even received prominent portrayal in the comedy "Borat" put forward by comedian Sasha Baron Cohen to the anger and chagrin of Kazakhstani's who saw the humorous depiction. Nazarbayev has served as the President of Kazakhstan since the nation's independence from the Soviet Union in 1991 and has led the country forward in many reforms most notably joining with the Islamic Republic of Iran in 2011 to call for a unified currency among Central Asian nations something that both nations pursued. His legacy is being heralded in Kazakhstan as that of a "genuine leader" who consistently put his country and his people first and put Kazakhstan on the map of permanence

NPD holds Anti-Muslim Rally in Hamburg, Calls for Muslims to be Expelled from Germany & A Pure German State



Over 5,000 NPD members rallied illegally today in Hamburg calling for Muslims to be expelled from Germany and the creation of a pure German state. The NPD is a far-right German nationalist party. It was founded in 1964 as successor to the German Reich Party (German: Deutsche Reichspartei, DRP). Party statements self-identify as Germany's "only significant patriotic force". On 1 January 2011 the far-right German People's Union (German: Deutsche Volksunion) merged with the NPD, and the party name of the National Democratic Party of Germany was extended by the addition of 'The People's Union'. The NPD's political philosophy coincides with the notion of a third political position, an idea which developed amidst criticisms of both liberal capitalism and communism. The NPD also endorses certain beliefs about human nature. NPD leader Udo Voigt states that the philosophy of the NPD differs from both communism and social liberalism in that it acknowledges people as unequal products of their societies and environments, largely governed by what is called natural law. Voigt states that the party is also influenced by the views of modern ethologists such as Konrad Lorenz and Irenäus Eibl-Eibesfeldt.

The NPD calls itself a party of "grandparents and grandchildren" because the 1960s generation in Germany, known for the leftist student movement, strongly opposes the NPD's policies. The NPD's economic program promotes social security for Germans and control against plutocracy, but it does not oppose private property. They discredit and reject the "liberal-capitalist system". he NPD argues that NATO fails to represent the interests and needs of European people. The party considers the European Union to be little more than a reorganisation of a Soviet-style Europe along financial lines. Although highly critical of the EU, as long as Germany remains a part of it, the NPD opposes Turkey's incorporation into the organisation. Voigt envisions future collaboration and continued friendly relations with other nationalists and European national parties. The NPD's platform says that Germany is larger than the present-day Federal Republic, and calls for revision of the post-war border concessions. At one point, a map of Germany was shown on the party website omitting the border that divides Germany from Austria. The NPD also failed to colour in the Oder-Neisse Line, the border which established the limits of federal Germany to the east and was agreed upon with Poland in 1990.

The rally was met with a counter protest by CDU members who called for the NPD to stand down and increased marginalization of the far right party that many call an offshoot of the "darkest chapter in German history". The protestors represent a growing segment however in German society as anti-immigrant positions begin to set in and some far right elements in the north begin to take more and more of a hold. The fear many say is that the NPD could gain greater representation in the regional assemblies and in the Bundestag and perhaps even the European Parliament which many argue would be disasterous for Germany in the future. Only an active Chancellor, sources argue, can stop the growing threat of the NPD in Germany.

Germany

-3 Domestic Popularity (Many in Northern Germany and parts of Eastern Germany support the NPD in a general sense. But others such as those close to Berlin and Southern Germany are fearful of the NPD's growth in the past year within Germany.)
-4 International Popularity (Many in the international community are concerned with what they see as an increased support in Germany for far right elements rather than the generally moderative elements of the NPD.

Egypt’s Islamist president now has powers that rival authoritarian predecessor Mubarak




CAIRO — Egypt’s Islamist president has given himself the right to legislate and control over the drafting of a new constitution. He has installed at the top of the powerful military a defense minister likely to be beholden to him. Under Mohammed Morsi’s authority, officials have moved to silence influential critics in the media. And though a civilian, he declared himself in charge of military operations against militants in the Sinai peninsula. Over the weekend, Morsi ordered the retirement of the defense minister and chief of staff and reclaimed key powers the military seized from him days before he took office on June 30. With that, Egypt’s first freely elected president amassed in his own hands powers that rival those of his ousted authoritarian predecessor, Hosni Mubarak. If left unchecked, there are fears Morsi and his fundamentalist group, the Muslim Brotherhood, could turn the clock back on the country’s tumultuous shift to democratic rule and pursue their goal of someday turning the most populous Arab nation into an Islamic state.

The Brotherhood already won both parliamentary and presidential elections after the uprising last year that forced Mubarak out. The question now is whether there is any institution in the country that can check the power of Morsi and the Brotherhood and stop them from taking over the nation’s institutions and consolidating their grip. “Are we looking at a president determined to dismantle the machine of tyranny ... or one who is retooling the machine of tyranny to serve his interests, removing the military’s hold on the state so he can lay the foundations for the authority of the Brotherhood?” prominent rights activist and best-selling novelist Alaa al-Aswani wrote in an article published Tuesday in an independent daily. “He must correct these mistakes and assure us through actions that he is a president of all Egyptians,” wrote the secular al-Aswani before warning that Egyptians will never allow Morsi to turn Egypt into a “Brotherhood state.”

Nobel Peace Prize laureate Mohamed ElBaradei, the country’s top reform leader, issued a similar warning on Monday. After Morsi stripped the military of legislative authority, and in the absence of parliament, he cautioned that the president holds “imperial powers.” The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), which ruled Egypt for 17 months after Mubarak’s ouster, dissolved parliament after a court ruled that a quarter of its members were illegally elected and claimed legislative authority for itself. It stripped the presidency of many of its key powers before it handed the office to Morsi. The defense minister ordered to retire was the head of SCAF and the outgoing chief of staff was his No. 2.

SCAF issued constitutional amendments just before Morsi took over that gave the military control over the national budget and the process of drafting a new constitution. The generals also put themselves in charge of all defense and foreign policy, including the appointment of the defense minister. But Morsi reclaimed those powers on Sunday, so far uncontested by the military. During his campaign and the early days of his presidency, Morsi touted himself as “the president of the revolution” and spoke tirelessly of democracy. He pledged inclusiveness, tolerance and promised guaranteed freedoms under his rule — promises he has done little so far to fulfill. Supporters of the 60-year-old, U.S.-educated engineer say he simply restored his rightful powers that the military grabbed from him.

“It is too early to say whether Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood are bent on dominating the state, but there are legitimate concerns given that Morsi now holds executive and legislative authority as well as having an avenue for intervening in constitution writing,” said Jeff Martini of the Rand Corporation. Morsi’s consolidation of his authority comes at a time when his likely opponents are too weak or distracted to challenge him. The pro-democracy youth groups behind the uprising are in disarray. They lost much of the popular appeal they once had among the millions who answered their call to come out and protest during the uprising. Squabbling and demoralized, they may do little more than denounce Morsi just as they did when the military grabbed the president’s power in June.

Morsi has counted on the support of the pro-democracy movement in his power struggle with the military. But many of the activists view the Brotherhood as politically opportunistic and obsessed with power, suspecting Morsi is driven by those same ambitions. “Courageous presidential decrees have foiled the counter-revolution plots,” Brotherhood stalwart Essam el-Erian wrote on his Twitter account of Morsi’s latest stand against the military. “The president performed his sovereign duty and realized the demands of the revolution. Every revolutionary must support the president to prevent any attempt against the revolution.” The military is not in a much stronger position to challenge Morsi right now. For decades the nation’s most powerful institution, the military has seen its reputation tainted by the events of the 17 months when it was running the country. Troops clashed with protesters — sometimes shot them dead or ran them over. The military was vilified for its human rights abuses, dragged into chaotic, post-Mubarak politics and ridiculed in the media.

Morsi’s bold order to retire the top brass further hurt the military’s image, shattering its aura of invincibility. Still far from being a spent force or a paper tiger, the military is now led by a defense minister who owes his job to Morsi. He is expected to fight to keep the military’s traditional say in key security and foreign policy issues, but he is not expected to challenge Morsi’s authority anytime soon. Morsi succeeded Mubarak, whose 29-year rule saw Egypt evolve into a state where a confluence of powers — the presidency, the hated police and a coterie of wealthy, corrupt businessmen — held the nation by a stranglehold. Mubarak ruled unchallenged, his ruling party dominated, assured of sweeping every election even before the first ballot was cast. With the support of the police and the presidential establishment, he controlled every state institution.

Emergency laws were in force for all 29 years and dissent was tolerated, but only if it fell short of a concrete action to elicit real change. Now Morsi is in effect both the executive and legislative branches combined. And his backers are showing some tell-tale signs of wielding power unchecked. Last week, Brotherhood members of parliament’s upper house named 50 new editors of state-owned publications, many of them known to be sympathetic to the group. The move tightened the Brotherhood’s stranglehold on the media after one of its members took over the Information Ministry in a newly appointed Cabinet backed by the group and led by a devout Muslim. Morsi and the Brotherhood remained silent when a mob of supporters attacked a media complex in a Cairo suburb, smashing offices and cars to punish critics of the president. Supporters also intimidate and sometimes scuffle with protesters outside the presidential palace. And though he is a civilian, the president declared himself to be running military operations against radical Muslims in Sinai after suspected militants killed 16 Egyptian soldiers on the border with Israel on Aug. 5.

Morsi, according to insiders, is expected to press ahead with efforts to expand the Brotherhood’s control. He plans to soon replace many of Egypt’s 27 provincial governors with Brotherhood members or sympathizers of the group and purge the judiciary of judges known to be opposed to its policies, according to the insiders familiar with deliberations in Morsi’s inner circle. They spoke on condition of anonymity because they feared retribution. “We are now rid of a state run by the military. What is left for us to do is to rid ourselves from the state of the Brotherhood,” wrote columnist Mohammed Amin in the independent Al-Masry Al-Youm daily. The Brotherhood will be emboldened by Morsi’s standing up to the military as it prepares for new parliamentary elections expected before the end of the year and may press even harder to give the new constitution an Islamist tint over the opposition of liberals. “There will be a firestorm if he interferes in the drafting of the document, but that he has the right to do that amounts to coercive influence on the process,” said Michael W. Hanna of New York’s Century Foundation.

Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/egypts-islamist-president-now-has-powers-that-rival-authoritarian-predecessor-mubarak/2012/08/14/6011b90c-e64f-11e1-9739-eef99c5fb285_story.html

Egypt

-4 Domestic Popularity (People see this as a return to the days of Mubarak but from an Islamist twist on things
-5 International Popularity (Many nations are fearing what this could mean for Egypt, and many analysts see this as potentially being the "new" Iran with its scope on Israel


Israel

-4 Domestic Popularity (People are very nervous in Israel that Egypt might now take advantage of the Sinai and use it against Israel in a dangerous new way.)
Israeli Citizens are calling for a response from the Israeli government

Poland, Latvia, Ukraine and Estonia normalise relations with Belarus and Russia


Commercial transport resumes between Russia and Latvia

Warsaw, Poland Following the resolution of the Georgia-Russia crisis the governments of Poland, Latvia, Ukraine and Estonia have taken steps to normalise relations with Belarus and Russia.

In a press conference held today the Polish foreign minister Radoslaw Sikorski announced that the Poland-Belarus border will be reopened. "We wish to return Polish-Belarusian relations to their pre-crisis status," he said.

In response to Russian-Georgian tensions and what the Latvians called "unacceptable Russian aggression", the Latvian government increased the number of border patrol officers on the Latvian-Russian border and stationed 1,000 soldiers on the border as a "precaution". Last night the Latvian government stated that it would be reversing this decision "effective immediately".

Latvia has also reopened its border with Belarus. The closing of the border was an action made in response to the Russian deployment of 13,000 soldiers in the Abkhazia and South Ossetia regions. The Ukrainians have also announced the reopening of the Ukraine-Belarus border.

The Estonians had, according to high-level diplomatic sources, considered similar measures in response to what it also considered to be Russian aggression, but it has now stepped back from such posturing. "Their is no desire for any kind of confrontation with Russia," said one international politics analysts we spoke to. "Increasingly, the Estonians are pleased they did not get drawn into such tit-for-tat measures."

[EFFECTS]

Poland, Latvia, Ukraine, Estonia, Belarus and Russia
Status of various borders return to pre-Georgia-Russia crisis levels.